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Analyze theoretical sources on risk management in the organization; reveal the concept, meaning and definition of risk in the organization; give a classification of the main types of risks; study risk management methods and main ways to reduce risks; conduct an analysis of the risk management policy at Furniture Workshop LLC;
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Ministry of Education and Science of Russia
FEDERAL STATE
BUDGET EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION
HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION
«»
Management department
Department of Economic Theory and Human Resources Management
COURSE WORK
in the discipline "Risk Management"
on the topic Analysis and characteristics of risks in the enterprise
2015
Introduction.3
1. Methodological foundations of risk management 5
1.1 Risks in the management system: concept, definition, meaning 5
1.2 Risk classification 9
1.3 Risk Management Techniques and Ways to Reduce Risks 14
2. Risk management at Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC 21
LLC "Furniture Workshop" 21
2.2 Analysis of the factors and causes of risks in the organization 25
2.3 Analysis of the current risk management system at Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC 32
3. Development and implementation of a risk reduction program at Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC 34
3.1 Features of decision-making under risk and uncertainty 34
3.2 Organizational measures to reduce risks 36
Conclusion 42
References 45
Applications 47
Introduction
The relevance of the work. The transition to a market economy, the legal recognition of property revived active entrepreneurial activity in Russia. Behind the terms "entrepreneurship" and "entrepreneur" is an enterprise - a complex organism, which is a production and economic system, the task of which is to produce products, works and services. The activity of the enterprise as a subject of market relations takes place in conditions of fierce competition between producers. It is the competitive market environment that creates the most favorable conditions for economic development, both for an individual enterprise and for society as a whole, and is the driving force behind social and economic progress.
However, decisions in the activities of business organizations have to be made under conditions of uncertainty, when it is necessary to choose a course of action from several options, the implementation of which is difficult to predict (calculate), as they say, at 100%. Risk is inherent in any sphere of human activity, which is associated with a variety of conditions and factors that lead to a positive or negative outcome of decisions made by individuals. Historical experience shows that the risk of not getting the intended results especially began to manifest itself in the conditions of the universality of commodity-money relations, the competition of participants in economic turnover. Therefore, with the emergence and development of capitalist relations, various theories of risk appear, and the classics of economic theory pay special attention to the study of risk problems in entrepreneurial activity.
The object of study of the course work isLLC "Furniture Workshop". The subject of the course work is the methodological foundations of enterprise risk management.
In this regard, the purpose of this work is to study the essence of risks in the management system and in the development of a risk management mechanism for an enterprise in modern business conditions. In accordance with the goal in the course work, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:
- analyze theoretical sources on risk management in the organization;
- reveal the concept, meaning and definition of risk in the organization;
- give a classification of the main types of risks;
- study risk management methods and main ways to reduce risks;
- conduct an analysis of the risk management policy onLLC "Furniture Workshop";
- develop a risk reduction program for OOO Furniture Workshop.
When writing this work, the following methods and techniques were used: dialectical, abstract-logical; analysis and synthesis.
An analysis of published works indicates that the problem of enterprise risk management is to some extent reflected in a relatively a small amount scientific works. Among theorists who have made a real contribution to the development of risk theory, one can single out such scientists as A.P. Algin, G.B. Kleiner, V.N. Granaturov, V.S. Romanov, M.G. Lapusta, N.V. Khokhlov, G.V. Chernov.
The methodological basis of the study was the concepts and views of domestic and foreign economists, journal articles, materials of scientific seminars and conferences related to risk issues.
1. Methodological foundations of risk management
1.1 Risks in the marketing system: concept, definition, meaning
There is a wide variety of opinions about the concept of definition, essence and nature of risk. This is due to the multidimensionality of this phenomenon, insufficient use in real activity, and ignoring it in the existing legislation. Consider two concepts that complement each other and cover the general content of risk.
The first definition is that risk is defined as the probability (threat) of an enterprise losing part of its resources, shortfall in income or the appearance of additional costs as a result of certain production and financial activities. Therefore, risk refers to the possibility of some adverse event occurring, the possibility of failure, the possibility of danger.
The second definition of risk is associated with the concept of "risk situation". A situation, in general, is a combination, a set of various circumstances and conditions that create a certain environment for a particular type of activity. Environment can help or hinder the implementation this action.
In a risk situation, it is possible to quantitatively and qualitatively determine the degree of probability of a particular option, and it is accompanied by three conditions:
- the presence of uncertainty;
- the need to choose an alternative (including the refusal to choose);
- the ability to assess the likelihood of implementation of the chosen alternatives.
The situation of risk is qualitatively different from the situation of uncertainty. In a situation of uncertainty, the probability of occurrence of the results of decisions or events is, in principle, not established. Therefore, the risk situation is a kind of uncertainty situation, because in which the occurrence of events is probable and can be determined.
By their nature, risk is divided into three types:
1. When at the disposal of the subject, making a choice from several alternatives, there are objective probabilities of obtaining the intended result. These are probabilities that do not directly depend on the given firm: the level of inflation, competition, statistical studies, etc.
2. When the probabilities of the expected result can be obtained only on the basis of subjective assessments, i.e. the subject deals with subjective probabilities. Subjective probabilities directly characterize a given firm: production potential, level of subject and technological specialization, labor organization, etc.
3. When the subject, in the process of choosing and implementing an alternative, has both objective and subjective probabilities.
Thanks to these modifications of risk, the subject makes a choice and strives to realize it. As a result, the risk exists both at the stage of choosing a solution and at the stage of its implementation.
Based on these conditions, the second definition of risk is as follows. Risk is an action (act, deed) performed under the conditions of choice (in a situation of choice in the hope of a happy outcome), when in case of failure there is an opportunity (degree of danger) to be in a worse position than before the choice (than in case of failure to perform this action ) .
More fully, risk is defined as an activity associated with overcoming uncertainty in a situation of inevitable choice, during which it is possible to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the likelihood of achieving the intended result, failure and deviation from the goal.
From the last definition, it is possible to single out the main elements that will constitute the essence of the concept of "risk".
1. The possibility of deviation from the intended goal for which the chosen alternative was carried out (deviations of both negative and positive properties).
2. Probability of achieving the desired result.
3. Lack of confidence in achieving the goal.
4. The possibility of material, moral and other losses associated with the implementation of the alternative chosen under conditions of uncertainty.
Acceptance of a project associated with risk involves the identification and comparison of possible losses and incomes. If the risk is not supported by calculations, then it mostly ends in failure and is accompanied by certain losses. To cope with the negative phenomena associated with risk, it is necessary to identify: the main features and sources of its occurrence, its most important types, the acceptable level of risk, risk measurement methods, risk reduction methods.
The main features of risk are: inconsistency, alternativeness and uncertainty.
Such a feature as inconsistency in risk leads to a collision of objectively existing risky actions with their subjective assessment. Since, along with initiatives, innovative ideas, the introduction of new promising activities that accelerate technical progress and influence public opinion and the spiritual atmosphere of society, conservatism, dogmatism, subjectivism, etc.
Alternative implies the need to choose from two or more possible solutions, directions, actions. If there is no choice, then there is no risky situation, and, consequently, no risk.
Uncertainty is the incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the conditions for the implementation of the project (solution). The existence of risk is directly related to the presence of uncertainty, which is heterogeneous in form and content. Entrepreneurial activity is carried out under the influence of the uncertainty of the external environment (economic, political, social, etc.), many variables, counterparties, persons whose behavior cannot always be predicted with acceptable accuracy. Based on this, we highlight the main causes of uncertainty (risk):
Spontaneity of natural processes and phenomena, natural disasters (earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, drought, frost, ice).
Accident. When in similar conditions the same event occurs differently as a result of many socio-economic and technological processes.
The presence of opposing tendencies, a clash of interests. These are military operations, ethnic conflicts.
The probabilistic nature of the NTP. It is almost impossible to determine the specific consequences of certain scientific discoveries, technical inventions.
Incompleteness, insufficiency of information about the object, process, phenomenon. This reason leads to the limitation of a person in the collection and processing of information, with the constant variability of this information.
Limited, material, financial, labor and other resources in making and implementing decisions; the impossibility of unambiguous knowledge of the object at the current level and methods of scientific knowledge; limited conscious activity of a person, existing differences in socio-psychological attitudes, assessments, behavior.
Thus, the risk can be understood as an economic category, quantitatively (and qualitatively) expressed in the uncertainty of the outcome of the business activities planned for implementation, reflecting the degree of failure (or success) of the entrepreneur (firm) in comparison with pre-planned results. The effectiveness of the organization of risk management is largely determined by the classification of risk.
1.2 Risk classification
Depending on the possible result (risk event), risks can be divided into two large groups: pure and speculative.
Pure risks means the possibility of obtaining a negative or zero result. These risks include the following risks: natural, environmental, political, transport and part of commercial risks (property, production, trade).
Speculative risks are expressed in the possibility of obtaining both positive and negative results. These risks include financial risks that are part of commercial risks.
Depending on the main cause of risks (basic or natural risk), they are divided into the following categories: natural risks, environmental, political, transport, commercial risks.
Natural risks include risks associated with the manifestation of the elemental forces of nature: earthquake, flood, storm, fire, epidemic, etc.
Environmental risks - These are the risks associated with environmental pollution.
Political risks are associated with the political situation in the country and the activities of the state. Political risks include:
- the impossibility of carrying out economic activity due to military operations, revolution, aggravation of the internal political situation in the country, nationalization, confiscation of goods and enterprises, embargoes, due to the refusal of the new government to fulfill the obligations assumed by its predecessors, etc.;
- the introduction of a deferment (moratorium) on external payments for a certain period due to the onset of emergency circumstances (strike, war, etc.);
- unfavorable change in tax legislation;
- prohibition or restriction of the conversion of the national currency into the payment currency. In this case, the obligation to exporters can be fulfilled in the national currency, which has a limited scope.
Transport risks - these are the risks associated with the transportation of goods by road, sea, river, rail, aircraft, etc.
Commercial risks represent the risk of losses in the process of financial and economic activity. They mean the uncertainty of the results from this commercial transaction. On a structural basis, commercial risks are divided into property, production, trade, financial.
Property risks - these are risks associated with the probability of loss of the entrepreneur's property due to theft, sabotage, negligence, overvoltage of technical and technological systems, etc.
Production risks - risks associated with a loss from stopping production due to the impact of various factors and, above all, with the loss or damage to fixed and working capital (equipment, raw materials, transport, etc.), as well as risks associated with the introduction of new equipment and technology into production.
Trading risks are the risks associated with loss due to delays in payments, refusal to pay during the period of transportation of goods, non-delivery of goods, etc. .
Financial risks are related to the probability of loss of financial resources (ie cash). Financial risks are divided into two types: risks associated with the purchasing power of money, and risks associated with investing capital (investment risks).
The risks associated with the purchasing power of money include the following types of risks: inflationary and deflationary risks, currency risks, liquidity risks.
inflation risk - it is the risk that, as inflation rises, cash incomes received depreciate in terms of real purchasing power faster than they rise. In such conditions, the entrepreneur bears real losses.
deflationary risk - it is the risk that as deflation rises, prices fall, business conditions worsen, and incomes decline.
Currency risks represent the danger of currency losses associated with a change in the exchange rate of one foreign currency against another, when conducting foreign economic, credit and other foreign exchange transactions.
Liquidity risks - these are risks associated with the possibility of losses in the sale of securities or other goods due to a change in the assessment of their quality and use value.
Investment risks include the following subtypes of risks: the risk of lost profits, the risk of reduced profitability, the risk of direct financial losses.
Lost profit risk - this is the risk of indirect (collateral) financial damage (lost profit) as a result of the failure to carry out any activity (for example, insurance, hedging, investment, etc.).
The risk of a decrease in profitability may arise as a result of a decrease in the amount of interest and dividends on portfolio investments, on deposits and loans.
Portfolio investments are associated with the formation of an investment portfolio and represent the acquisition of securities and other assets.
Yield downside risk includes the following varieties: interest rate risks and credit risks.
Interest risks include the risk of losses by commercial banks, credit institutions, investment institutions, seling companies as a result of the excess of interest rates paid by them on attracted funds over rates on loans granted. Interest risks also include the risks of losses that investors may incur due to changes in dividends on shares, interest rates on the market for bonds, certificates and other securities.
Credit risk - the danger of non-payment by the borrower of principal and interest due to the creditor. Credit risk also includes the risk of such an event that the issuer that issued debt securities will be unable to pay interest on them or the principal amount of the debt. Credit risk can also be a type of direct financial loss risk.
The risks of direct financial loss include the following varieties: stock risk, selective risk, bankruptcy risk, and credit risk.
Exchange risks represent the danger of losses from exchange transactions. These risks include the risk of non-payment on commercial transactions, the risk of non-payment of commission fees of a brokerage firm, etc.
Selective risks (lat. selectio - choice, selection) - this is the risk of wrong choice of types of capital investment, type of securities for investment in comparison with other types of securities when forming an investment portfolio.
The risk of bankruptcy is a danger resulting from the wrong choice of capital investment, the complete loss by the entrepreneur of his own capital and his inability to pay for his obligations.
According to another classification, risks can be divided into the following types:
- Business risks: risks associated with the possibility of a deterioration in the overall financial condition of the company, a decrease in the value of its capital (shares, bonds);
- Organizational risks caused by errors of the company's management (including those in decision-making), its employees; problems of the internal control system, poorly developed work rules, etc., that is, risks associated with the internal organization of the company's work;
- Market risks these are the risks associated with the instability of the economic situation: the risk of financial losses due to changes in the price of goods, translational currency risk, the risk of loss of liquidity, etc.;
- Credit risks the risk that the counterparty will not fulfill its obligations on time;
- Legal risks these are the risks of losses associated with the fact that the legislation was either not taken into account at all, or changed during the period of the transaction; the risk of inconsistency between the laws of different countries; the risk of incorrectly drawn up documentation, as a result of which the counterparty is not able to fulfill the terms of the contract, etc.;
- Technical and production risks risk of damage to the environment (environmental risk); the risk of accidents, fires, breakdowns; the risk of disruption in the functioning of the facility due to design and installation errors, non-compliance with production technologies and processes, a number of construction risks, etc.
This classification not only clearly interprets the belonging of risks to a specific group, allowing to unify the risk assessment, but also most fully covers a variety of risks, which makes it possible to competently approach the problem of identifying risk factors (RHF) and developing ways to reduce them in the organization.
1.3 Risk management methods and ways to reduce risks
Risk management methods are very diverse. From the current practice it is quite clear that Russian specialists, on the one hand, and Western researchers, on the other, have quite clear preferences regarding risk management methods. The presence of such preferences is primarily due to the nature of the economic development of the state and, as a result, the groups of risks under consideration.
However, despite the differences in preferences, it should be taken into account that the development of economic relations in Russia contributes to the introduction of Western experience and, as a result, the convergence of Russian and Western approaches to risk management and research.
The means of resolving risks are their avoidance, retention, transfer, reduction of the degree.
Risk avoidance means simply avoiding the risky activity. However, avoiding risk for an investor often means giving up profits.
Risk retention is leaving the risk to the investor, i.e. on his responsibility. Thus, an investor, investing venture capital, is sure in advance that he can cover the possible loss of venture capital at his own expense.
Transferring risk means that the investor transfers responsibility for the risk to someone else, such as an insurance company.
Various methods are used to reduce the degree of risk. The most common are:
- diversification;
- acquisition of additional information about the choice and results;
- limiting;
- self-insurance;
- insurance .
Diversification is the process of distributing invested funds among various investment objects that are not directly related to each other, in order to reduce the degree of risk and loss of income. Diversification allows you to avoid part of the risk in the distribution of capital between diverse activities.
Limiting - this is the setting of a limit, i.e. limits on expenses, sales, loans, etc. Limiting is an important technique for reducing the degree of risk and is used by banks when issuing loans, when concluding an overdraft agreement, etc. It is used by business entities when selling goods on credit, providing loans, determining the amount of capital investment, etc.
Self-insurance means that the entrepreneur prefers to insure himself than to buy insurance from an insurance company. Thus, he saves on insurance capital costs. Self-insurance is a decentralized form of creating in-kind and cash insurance (reserve) funds directly in an economic entity, especially in those whose activities are at risk. Self-insurance is logical when the value of the insured property is relatively small compared to the property and financial parameters of the entire business. For example, large corporation it is impractical to insure your equipment against fire through an insurance company, which is installed in a small room rented by it. Self-insurance also makes sense when the probability of loss is extremely low when the firm owns large quantity the same type of property. Thus, multinational oil companies that own several hundred tankers practice self-insurance. The calculation is very simple and logical: the loss of one tanker per year, which is unlikely, will cost the company less than paying insurance premiums for all tankers.
The essence of insurance is expressed in the fact that the investor is ready to give up part of the income in order to avoid risk, i.e. he is willing to pay to reduce the risk to zero.
Annexes 1 and 2 provide ways to mitigate the negative consequences of various types of risk that an entrepreneur may face.
The development of the science of risk management is largely considered from the position of the risks of financial institutions in a relatively stable economic environment. The need to consider the risks of manufacturing enterprises in unstable political, economic and social conditions requires adjustment of existing risk management principles and additional justification of the effectiveness of the risk analysis methods used.
One of the main reasons for ineffective risk management is the lack of clear and precise methodological foundations for this process. An analysis of the principles of risk management given in the literature shows their fragmentation, and many controversial issues are inherent in individual attempts to systematize them. Nevertheless, the analysis of research in the field of risk management methodology, taking into account the requirements of the modern economy, allows us to form a system of risk management principles:
- a risk-related decision should be economically sound and should not have a negative impact on the results of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise;
- risk management should be carried out within the framework of the corporate strategy of the organization;
- risk management decisions should be based on the required volume reliable information;
- when managing risks, the decisions made should take into account the objective characteristics of the environment in which the enterprise operates;
- risk management should be systemic;
- risk management should involve the current analysis of the effectiveness of the decisions made and the operational updating of the set of principles and methods of risk management used.
The essence of each stage of risk management involves the use of various methods.
The entire risk management process can be displayed as follows (Fig. 1.1):
The stage of setting risk management goals is characterized by the use of methods for analyzing and forecasting the economic situation, identifying the capabilities and needs of the enterprise within the framework of the strategy and current plans for its development.
At the stage of risk analysis, methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis are used: methods for collecting existing and new information, modeling the activities of an enterprise, statistical and probabilistic methods, etc.
At the third stage, the effectiveness of various methods of influencing risk is compared: avoiding risk, reducing risk, accepting risk, transferring part or all of the risk to third parties, which ends with a decision on choosing their optimal set.
At the final stage of risk management, the selected methods of influencing the risk. The result of this stage should be new knowledge about the risk, allowing, if necessary, to adjust the previously set risk management goals.
Rice. 1.1. Risk Management Process
Thus, each stage uses its own risk management methods. The results of each stage become the initial data for subsequent stages, forming a decision-making system with feedback. Such a system ensures the most effective achievement of goals, since the knowledge gained at each of the stages allows you to adjust not only the methods of influencing the risk, but also the risk management goals themselves.
In modern business conditions, characterized by political, economic and social instability, the management system existing at the enterprise should include a risk management mechanism.
The first stage in the formation of a risk management mechanism in an enterprise is the creation of a risk management service. At the current stage of development of the Russian economy, the purpose of this service is to minimize losses by monitoring the activities of the enterprise, analyzing the entire complex of ROF, developing recommendations for reducing risks and monitoring their implementation. At the same time, it is important to determine the place of service in the organizational structure of the enterprise, determine the rights and obligations of its personnel and inform the employees of the enterprise about the functions of the service and the nature of its activities.
When developing a program of measures for risk management, specialists of the risk management service should focus on the maximum unification of the formed risk level assessments, which is expressed in the formation of universal parameters that characterize the amount of possible damage. As such parameters, it is most expedient to use the impact of risks on financial flows and the financial condition of the enterprise.
The final stage of the development of the program is the formation of a set of measures to reduce risks, indicating the planned effect from their implementation, the timing of implementation, sources of funding and persons responsible for the implementation of this program. The program must be approved by the management of the enterprise and taken into account in financial and production planning.
All of the above allows us to conclude that the risk management mechanism of an enterprise in modern business conditions should have a clear hierarchical structure with the need to adjust it based on the results of the implementation of the program of measures to reduce risks and taking into account changing factors of influence.
2. Risk management forLLC "Furniture Workshop"
2.1 Organizational and economic characteristicsLLC "Furniture Workshop"
Full company name:Limited Liability Company "Furniture Workshop".
Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC is one of the largest and most competitive enterprises in the Russian furniture industry.
The company has a tradition of furniture production, using in its activities the resources and production bases of several well-known furniture companies.
The purpose of the Company's activity is: making profit.
Main economic activity: furniture production, wholesale and retail trade in household and office furniture.
The main markets in which the company operates are the household and office furniture. Sales geography Russia and CIS countries.
The development strategy of Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC is to increase the production of furniture and improve its quality, and this cannot be achieved without constant progress and technological growth, intensive implementation of innovations and know-how. In 2012 2014 Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC took measures to introduce a structure that would ensure the chosen development strategy.
Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC is actively taking measures to ensure its growth. This investment program requires, in addition to its own financial resources, the attraction of external resources. In this regard, the company is considering the issue of attracting investors.
The mission of LLC "Mebelnaya Masterskaya" is to perform a full range of works for the production of furniture.
The goal of Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC is to provide consumers with high-quality services in accordance with the type of activity.
LLC "Furniture Workshop"pursues a targeted policy of staff development, improvement of the quality of services provided.
LLC "Furniture Workshop"considers a close-knit and professional team as the most important strategic advantage and a guarantee of successful development and prosperity of the entire organization and each of its employees. The task of each employee is to support the mission of the organization.
Mission LLC "Furniture Workshop"is to fully satisfy consumers with high-quality services, to conduct a targeted policy to improve the quality of services provided by creating a close-knit and highly professional team of like-minded people as a guarantee of successful development and prosperity of the entire organization.
The overall goals of the firm are formulated and established on the basis of the overall mission of the organization and certain values and goals that top management is guided by.
To support the stability of the main activity in the conditions of market relations, the company offers its clients the following:
- production of upholstered furniture for the home: sets consisting of armchairs and sofas, separate sofas, sofa beds, armchairs, folding armchairs, soft corners for the living room;
- repair of furniture, both produced by our company and other manufacturers;
- production of upholstered furniture for offices;
- assembly of ready-made sets of furniture according to the orders of the population;
- we provide consultations of a qualified specialist on the issues of registration of an apartment, office;
- we sell at retail the necessary furniture parts, lumber;
- delivery of furniture to the destination.
Despite the fact that the upholstered furniture market is represented quite widely, most of the furniture manufacturers are private entrepreneurs without forming a legal entity. This form of entrepreneurship is less sustainable than organizing a business through the creation of a firm, which is a legal entity.
The main goals and objectives facing Furniture Workshop LLC for the next 5 years are as follows:
- Achievement High Quality products;
- Consolidation of positions in the furniture market;
- 30% annual growth in sales and profits.
Table 2.1 shows the economic performance of Furniture Workshop LLC for 2013-2014.
Table 2.1 Economic indicators of Furniture Workshop LLC for 2013-2014
Indicators |
2013 |
2014 |
Changes |
Growth rate, % |
Proceeds from the sale of products (works, services), thousand rubles |
7845,02 |
9880,88 |
2035,86 |
|
Average number of employees, pers. |
||||
Labor productivity, rub./person |
182,44 |
229,79 |
47,35 |
|
Wage fund, thousand rubles |
718861 |
1634533 |
915672 |
|
The average annual level of wages, rub. |
16718 |
38012 |
21294 |
|
The average annual cost of OPF thousand rubles. |
82,065 |
163,66 |
81,595 |
|
Return on assets for 1 rub. fixed assets, rub./rub. |
95,6 |
60,37 |
35,23 |
|
Capital-labor ratio, rub./person |
1,91 |
3,81 |
||
Average annual value of working capital balances |
6610,58 |
9053,11 |
2442,53 |
|
Cost of products (works, services), thousand rubles |
5388,73 |
7545,52 |
2156,79 |
|
Costs per 1 rub. products (works, services), rub./rub. |
0,67 |
0,76 |
0,09 |
|
Profit from the sale of products, thousand rubles. |
2235,99 |
1766,60 |
469,39 |
|
Financial results |
1808,4 |
985,14 |
823,26 |
|
Profitability, rub./rub.: Products Main activity |
28,5 39,86 |
17,9 21,77 |
10,6 18,09 |
According to Table 2.1, the main indicators increased significantly in 2014. Thus, the proceeds from sales increased by 2035.86 thousand rubles compared to the previous period. However, there is an increase in the cost per ruble of services sold by 0.09 rubles. This was due to an increase in the cost of production and selling expenses, provided that the prices for products remained at the level of 2013. Labor productivity increased by 26%, which allows us to conclude about the level of labor automation. In the effective operation of any enterprise, the manager traditionally plays an important role. The experience of recent years has shown that in practically the same economic and social conditions, some enterprises not only survived, but also develop successfully, while others turned out to be insolvent and are experiencing a severe crisis. An analysis of the state of these enterprises showed that, to a large extent, the fate of the enterprise was and still is in the hands of its leader. The organizational and production structure of Furniture Workshop LLC has the following form (Fig. 2.1).
Rice. 2.1. Organizational and production structure of Furniture Workshop LLC
The economic crisis that took hold of the real sector of the economy i.e. industry, also touched the woodworking industry. The current plight of woodworking enterprises is caused, first of all, by the decline in production volumes, the weakening of scientific and technical potential, the reduction in investment activity and other reasons. However, despite this, Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC has been on the market for more than 10 years and during this time has managed to win the trust of customers. The successful functioning of the entire management system, its effectiveness largely depends on the activities of business managers, on their ability to organize the risk management process of the organization. We will analyze the main factors and causes of risks arising in the course of activity of Furniture Workshop LLC.
2.2 Analysis of the factors and causes of risks in the organization
Risk assessment is the most important component common system risk management. It is the process of determining, quantitatively or qualitatively, the magnitude (degree) of risk.
Quantitative risk assessment provides the most accurate solutions. However, the implementation of a quantitative assessment also encounters the greatest difficulties associated with the fact that for the quantitative assessment of risks, appropriate initial information is needed. In Russia, the information services market is still very poorly developed and it is often difficult to obtain actual data that needs to be collected and processed.
An assessment of the financial position of the enterprise should be carried out based on the main financial statements, such as the balance sheet and profit and loss account. Risk assessment based on the analysis of the financial condition of Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC will be carried out in two stages: a study of the effective criteria for the enterprise's activities and an analysis based on special coefficients. All considered data presented in the analysis are the result of the operation of this enterprise during 2014. Stage one analysis of the performance criteria of the enterprise. Performance criteria These are the main final indicators of the company's activities, such as turnover or sales volume, the amount of assets and liquidity. It is more convenient to analyze the assets of an entrepreneurial firm on the basis of the firm's balance sheet. Let's analyze the presence, composition and placement of the company's assets. For convenience, we present the data in tabular form. The initial base is the balance sheet of the enterprise.
Table 2.2 Analysis of the composition and placement of assets of Furniture Workshop LLC for 2013-2014 thousand roubles.
From the data given in Table 2.2, it can be seen that in 2014 the total value of assets increased by 7%. This increase was largely due to an increase in working capital by 402.14 thousand rubles. or 5%. However, if we consider the structure of assets, then the share of non-current assets increased by 1.95% and amounted to 15.05% of the value of assets. The increase was mainly due to the appearance of construction in progress in the amount of 332.54 thousand rubles. and increase in the cost of fixed assets by 2.5 times. The presence of intangible assets in the composition of assets indirectly characterizes the strategy chosen by the enterprise as innovative, because it includes funds in patents, licenses and other intellectual property. However, at the end of 2014, their size decreased by 76% and amounted to 2.41 thousand rubles.
The value of current assets in production amounted to 8852.04 thousand rubles at the beginning of the year. or 86.9% of all assets, at the end of the period 9254.18 thousand rubles. or 84.95% of all assets, i.e. funds flow from the stage of circulation to the stage of production. The main factor that influenced the increase in working capital in absolute terms is the growth of inventories from 4649.01 thousand rubles. up to 6674.98 thousand rubles. The share of reserves in all assets increased from 45.7% to 61.27%. From the point of view of sustainability, this trend is negative, because it indicates a decrease in the liquidity of working capital.
The amount of receivables in 2014 decreased by 56% and amounted to 2057.99 thousand rubles. or 18.89% of the value of the property. This suggests that now this part of current assets is not diverted to lending to consumers of goods, works, services of other debtors, but is used in the production process.
Cash in absolute terms increased from 106.01 thousand rubles. up to 166.63 thousand rubles. However, their share in assets decreased by 0.01% and amounted to 0.12% at the end of the reporting period. This indicates a decrease in the liquidity of the current enterprise.
Thus, in the change in the structure of working capital, we can note the trend of reducing liquidity. The structure of current assets by risk category is shown in Table 2.3.
Table 2.3 Classification of current assets of Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC by risk categories thousand rubles.
When analyzing current assets by risk categories, it should be noted that there was an increase in the share of assets at risk in the minimum and high groups. The share of assets with a low degree of risk has decreased, which is associated with a decrease in the amount of receivables, payments on which are expected within 12 months after the reporting date. The group of current assets with a minimum degree of risk increased due to the growth in the share of cash in the structure of current assets. The share of assets with an average degree of risk has increased.
In general, the growth in the value of assets could not but cause an increase in the share of risky investments. Although there was an increase in the group with an average degree of risk by 0.96%, it should be noted that the share of these assets in the total value of current assets is insignificant. On the positive side, more than 80% are low-risk assets, and there are no high-risk assets.
In addition to the financial risks of the activities of Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC, other commercial risks arising in the production process are also important.
So production risksMebelnaya Masterskaya LLC associated with losses from production stoppage due to non-delivery of raw materials, or equipment failure.
Trade risks of Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC arise in connection with losses due to delayed payments by furniture buyers on credit.
Political risks are also one of the most significant. Today, all production, including furniture production, is very dependent on the political course chosen by the government, so any changes, primarily legislative ones, immediately affect the activities of Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC: tax policy, timber export, etc.
Second in importance economic risks. Of course, the economic situation of the country as a whole affects the work of Furniture Workshop LLC. If a country observes economic growth, its monetary and financial policy is stable, in connection with which interest rates on loans decrease, and trade turnover increases. On the other hand, the country's economic crisis primarily affects production, which, like a "litmus test", reflects the state of the economy. It affects the activities of Furniture Workshop LLC and such indicators as consumption, investment and employment in the country, since the more active the population, the more developed the range of services offered by Furniture Workshop LLC and the higher the turnover. Present in the course of activity of Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC and production risks that can be associated with an incorrectly chosen assortment policy, in connection with which the turnover decreases and the company incurs losses. That is why the activities of the managers of Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC are of no small importance here, the purpose of which is to study the furniture market and identify customer preferences. Thus, the analysis of the financial environment of the organization occupies the main role among all the possible risks of the activities of Furniture Workshop LLC. Here, the primary focus is on such points as: the composition of the company's capital and how it can affect poor payouts.
This enterprise is characterized by exposure to the following types of risk
2.3 Analysis of the current risk management system forLLC "Furniture Workshop"
Considering the risk management system used at Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC, it is necessary to single out such risk reduction methods as dissipation methods and self-insurance.
This enterprise shares the common risk by cooperating with other participants interested in the success of the common cause.
The next method of risk dissipation used in the enterprise under study is various diversification options. So OOO "Mebelnaya masterskaya" is engaged in several activities: the production and sale of furniture, furniture repair, designer services. Depending on the quality characteristics of a particular furniture line, its price can vary significantly. Thus, Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC focuses on consumers with different financial capabilities.
It can also be noted that this enterprise uses the diversification of purchases of raw materials and materials, i.e. interaction with many suppliers, which makes it possible to reduce the dependence of the enterprise on its "environment", on the unreliability of individual suppliers of raw materials, materials and components.
In addition to risk dissipation methods, the enterprise in question uses such a risk reduction method as self-insurance. The enterprise has created a reserve fund. The creation of such funds is especially important in a crisis of non-payments. However, the size of the reserve fund is insufficient in comparison with possible losses as a result of the occurrence of overdue receivables, non-performance of the contract or the occurrence of unforeseen expenses.
In addition to the above methods, the enterprise uses one of the methods of risk compensation "monitoring of the socio-economic and regulatory environment". This enterprise acquires various up-to-date computer systems of reference information, orders predictive and analytical studies of consulting firms and individual consultants. The data obtained as a result make it possible to catch new trends in the relationship between economic entities, provide for the necessary measures to compensate for losses from changes in the rules of doing business, and prepare in advance for regulatory innovations.
Analyzing the risk management system used in this organization as a whole, we can say that although some methods of reducing risk in the enterprise are used quite successfully, the system itself is not complete. Thus, the enterprise is not protected from such types of risks as property risks, inflationary risks, risks of changes in market conditions, the risks of non-performance of contracts, the occurrence of receivables, the occurrence of unforeseen losses, etc. are not sufficiently reduced. The reasons for this situation are the lack of insurance culture, experience and risk management specialists, the instability of the economic and political situation, which leads to a lack of interest in risk insurance. So, we can conclude that the enterprise under study does not pay enough attention to the problem of risk management. The main methods of minimizing risks in the enterprise under study are the diversification of suppliers and buyers, as well as types of activities, property insurance, as well as such a risk compensation method as monitoring the socio-economic and regulatory environment.
3. Development and implementation of a risk reduction program forLLC "Furniture Workshop"
3.1 Features of decision-making under risk and uncertainty
Risks affect various aspects of the enterprise and, as a rule, this impact is negative. The presence and influence of a risk factor on an enterprise that is already in crisis is especially harmful. Work to stabilize the situation must begin with risk management, that is, develop and implement cost-effective recommendations and measures for the enterprise aimed at reducing financial losses associated with risk.
Any enterprise interested in reducing possible losses associated with economic risk must solve several problems for itself:
- assess possible losses associated with economic risks;
- decide whether it retains certain risks, i.e. whether it bears all the responsibility for them itself, waives them or transfers part or all of the responsibility for them to other entities;
- for those risks or that part of the risks that it retains, the company must develop a program for managing them, the main purpose of which is to reduce possible losses.
The solution of these problems is possible on the basis of the development of a special program of targeted measures (PCM) for risk management at the enterprise level. The development of such a program at the enterprise level should provide such risk management, in which the main elements of the structure and activities of the firm are guaranteed high stability and protection from internal and external economic risks.
The development of the PCM should include two stages preliminary and main. At the preliminary stage, the anti-risk manager should get acquainted with the background and current specific information that will allow him to make decisions that precede the main stage of developing the PCM, and proceed to the direct development of the program. In other words, the purpose of this stage is to study all the information necessary for compiling the PCM.
The main stage is the actual development of a risk management program, implementation and implementation, which will help reduce possible damage to the enterprise.
An anti-risk manager, in order to make informed decisions on risk management, must have all the information necessary for this. This information should, if possible, be concentrated in one source. Work at each of the stages should be carried out using background information related to the preliminary and main stages of the development of the PCM.
Thus, the study of the development of the PCM will be carried out in three stages: the development of preliminary procedures, the development of a set of preventive measures and, finally, the description of reference information on both stages of the development of the PCM. When analyzing such a program, the list, as well as the content of the goals and objectives of the revision of the PCM, should be clarified.
The implementation of the goals and objectives of risk management requires the anti-risk manager to clarify and select those basic principles of company risk management that will be taken into account when developing the PPM. The principles that guide the manager in the development and implementation of the PCM, in the first place, are determined by the strategy of the enterprise. So, if an enterprise is focused on ensuring its financial stability, the relevant principles that should guide the developer of the program will dictate the choice of risk management methods that ensure this financial stability. Such a specific principle may be, for example, the principle of a company's orientation to the transfer of all risks to the external environment.
The effectiveness of the development of the PCM can be assessed in a way based on a comparison with the financial capabilities of the company of the values of the maximum possible, most probable and expected losses before and after the implementation of the PCM. Comparison can be carried out on the basis of the calculation of the ratio of the financial capacity of the company to cover the loss. This ratio is calculated for the maximum possible, most probable and expected losses for two options before the implementation of the risk management program and after it.
If the value of the coefficient is negative or equal to zero, then this means that the company has the financial capacity to cover the corresponding type of loss. If the value of the coefficient is greater than zero, then this indicates that the company is experiencing difficulties in covering it.
Comparison and analysis of the obtained values of the coefficients for the situation before and after the implementation of the PCM make it possible to indirectly assess the effectiveness and feasibility of developing and implementing the PCM. The more these coefficients differ from each other, the higher the efficiency of the implementation of the PCM.
3.2 Organizational measures to reduce risks
An analysis of the current situation showed how great the influence of the risk factor on the work of the enterprise in question. The influence of risks affects all aspects of the enterprise, worsening its financial position, production, marketing capabilities, ability to meet its obligations and other aspects. In addition, having studied the work of the enterprise in various departments, the following main drawback was noticed: functional specialists are engaged only in local tasks of their department, and the achievement of local goals does not always lead to the goals of the organization.
From all of the above, the relevance and necessity of an effective risk management system at this enterprise is visible. That is why the project for organizing a risk management system at Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC provides for the most effective implementation of this function by separating a separate structural unit in the enterprise management system - the risk management department (RMD). The project must necessarily include the development of an organizational structure for ESD and the development of a management procedure. This department must, without fail, adopt special program Targeted Risk Management Measures (RTM). The development of such a program at the firm level should ensure risk management in such a way that the main elements of the structure and activities of the firm are guaranteed to be highly resilient and protected from internal and external risks.
It is most expedient to carry out the risk management function in an enterprise with the help of a specialized unit or a special subsystem in the enterprise management system, which would organically fit into a set of traditionally independent functional subsystems of the enterprise.
Taking into account the recommendations of the economic literature on risk management, as well as the shortcomings identified directly in the enterprise, it is necessary that the risk management department consist of the following main executive groups monitoring the enterprise and its operating environment, risk analysts, planning anti-risk measures and crisis management, that are involved in the risk management process and are linked by information flows.
Figure 3.1 shows the proposed organizational structure of the unit that implements the risk management function at a manufacturing enterprise.
Rice. 3.1. Management structure of Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC with the introduction of a risk management department
It should be noted that each of the groups that make up the risk management department should include specialists in various fields of knowledge: first of all, an anti-risk manager, a marketing specialist, a financial specialist, personnel management, planning and economic work, and production.
A sufficient level of methodological and instrumental base should be provided by a group of prospective development, which, identifying or predicting needs, orders or develops on its own methods and models of risk management of Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC. The core of the unit is the "coordination service", which carries out the planning and organization of all work.
The coordination service performs the following set of tasks:
- maintaining the relationship with the management of the enterprise and other subsystems of enterprise management;
- determination of the frequency of work to control the risk of the enterprise's operation;
- determination of the scope of work of the next cycle of control and management (selection of the type of risk analysis, methods, methods for fixing results, etc.);
- determination of the moment of commencement of work on the risk analysis of the trial solution;
- organization of interaction between executive and information groups.
Designing a system of anti-risk measures involves dividing the work package between different departments and regulating them by the risk management department. The development of a management procedure includes: the definition of a goal, the development of a procedure scheme, a description of the operations included in the procedure. The workplace organization design model proceeds from the fact that work is a specialized operation assigned to an individual performer.
In addition to creating a department, the management of the enterprise generally has a key role in solving risk management problems, as it approves risk reduction programs, decides to start their implementation in critical situations, accepts proposed trial solutions along with anti-risk programs, or rejects them. It must be said that the direct implementation of risk management measures often contradicts the activities of the main production and management divisions of the enterprise, worsens their reporting indicators, as it requires costs that do not bring momentary income. Therefore, it is extremely important that the final anti-risk decisions are made at the highest level of management, where the global goals facing the enterprise, related to gaining stability and sustainability of work, improving the financial situation and increasing the scale of economic activity, are not obscured by intermediate, "local" goals of individual units and their managers.
Thus, taking into account the conclusions made on the basis of the analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise under study, the risks and methods used to reduce them, recommendations were developed to improve the risk management system, based on the creation of a risk management department. This department should work on the basis of a program of targeted risk management activities.
- the use of insurance instruments to protect intellectual property and reduce the risk of non-execution of business contracts, in particular, the conclusion of insurance contracts in case of impossibility due to specified reasons to deliver the goods under previously concluded contracts, as well as the buyer's refusal to accept the goods. In these cases, the insured is compensated for losses associated with the need to find new buyers, return goods, etc.;
- reserve funds to cover unforeseen expenses. Determining the structure of the contingency reserve is recommended to be based on the definition of contingencies by type of cost, for example, wages, materials, subcontracts. Such differentiation will allow to determine the degree of risk associated with each category of costs, which can then be extended to individual stages of production;
- limitation in the management of accounts receivable and in the borrowing policy. It is recommended to include in the system of standards that ensure limiting the concentration of risks: the maximum amount of borrowed funds; the minimum amount of assets in a highly liquid form; the maximum amount of commodity credit provided to one buyer; the maximum period for diverting funds into receivables.
In addition, to reduce the risk of suboptimal allocation of resources, economic fluctuations and changing tastes of customers and competitors' actions, it is proposed to use market research. In particular, it is advisable to conduct research to determine the exact amount of production, to study the possible actions of competitors and customer preferences.
Conclusion
Risk is inherent in any sphere of human activity, which is associated with a variety of conditions and factors that affect the positive outcome of people's decisions. Historical experience shows that the risk of not getting the intended results has become especially evident with the universality of commodity-money relations and the competition of participants in economic turnover.
Entrepreneurship in a market economy is impossible without risk. Risk is the probability of loss or shortfall in income compared to the forecast.
An entrepreneur, starting his own business or a new project, must study the possible risk zones - acceptable, critical and catastrophic, understand what categories of risk exist in business and commerce. In addition, he should know how to measure and combine risk, study the data in the chapter of recommendations on how to reduce his losses as a result of risk.
An analysis of theoretical studies on risk issues leads to the conclusion that these studies do not pay enough attention to a number of problems, the underestimation of which, in the practical use of the results of theoretical studies, can lead to an incomplete or incorrect assessment of the impact of certain ROFs on the corresponding types of risks.
On the basis of theoretical materials, an analysis of the impact of risks on the functioning of the enterprise was carried out using the example of Furniture Workshop LLC. Based on the analysis carried out, it can be concluded that, in general, the financial position of Furniture Workshop LLC improved in 2014, however, today financial risk occupies the main role among all possible risks of Furniture Workshop LLC activities. Here, the primary focus is on such points as: the composition of the company's capital and how it can affect poor payouts. In addition to financial risk, this company is also exposed to other types of risk:
- A decrease in the planned volumes of production and sales of products due to a decrease in labor productivity, downtime of equipment or underutilization of production capacity, loss of working time, lack of the required amount of raw materials, an increased percentage of rejects leads to a shortfall in planned revenue.
- A decrease in prices at which it is planned to sell products due to insufficient quality, unfavorable changes in market conditions, falling demand, price inflation leads to probable losses.
- Increased material costs due to overspending of materials, raw materials, fuel, energy.
- Other increased costs, which may be due to high transport costs, sales costs, overheads and other incidental costs.
- Payment of increased deductions and taxes, if in the process of implementing the business plan, deduction and tax rates change in an unfavorable direction for the entrepreneur.
The results of the analysis showed that for Mebelnaya Masterskaya LLC the most significant risks are the risk of non-execution of business contracts, price and commercial risks.
That is why we can conclude that the enterprise under study does not pay enough attention to the problem of risk management.
As for the risk minimization methods used, the diversification of suppliers and buyers, as well as types of activities, property insurance, as well as such a risk compensation method as monitoring the socio-economic and regulatory environment, are the main ones at the enterprise under study.
Taking into account the conclusions made on the basis of the analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise under study, the risks and methods used to reduce them, recommendations were developed to improve the risk management system, based on the creation of a risk management department. This department should work on the basis of a program of targeted risk management activities.
- the use of insurance instruments to protect intellectual property and reduce the risk of non-execution of business contracts;
- reserve funds to cover unforeseen expenses;
- limitation in the management of accounts receivable and in the borrowing policy.
In addition, to reduce the risk of suboptimal allocation of resources, economic fluctuations and changing tastes of customers and competitors' actions, it is proposed to use market research. In particular, it is advisable to conduct research to determine the exact quantity of production, to study the possible actions of competitors and customer preferences.
In conclusion, we must say that whether we want it or not, but when carrying out entrepreneurial activities (especially at the stage of its development), we will have to deal with uncertainty and increased risk. The task of a true entrepreneur, a business executive of a new type, is not to look for a business with a clearly foreseen result, a business without risk. It is necessary not to avoid the inevitable risk, but to anticipate it, trying to reduce it to the lowest possible level.
List of used literature
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Attachment 1
Various types of risk not related to insurance
Type of risk |
|
Commercial risk |
Correct determination of the acceptable level of the ratio of financial ratios. The right choice of ways to increase the predicted return on investment in a given project. |
Risk of suboptimal resource allocation |
Clear and correct definition of priorities in the allocation of resources depending on their availability. Correct and clear marketing research to determine the exact quantity of products produced. Using the matrix technique |
Economic fluctuations and changing customer tastes |
Effective forecasting and planning |
Actions of competitors |
Vigorous activity in studying and anticipating the possible actions of competitors and taking them into account in marketing and production activities |
Worker dissatisfaction, which can lead to their departure or strikes |
Well-thought-out socio-economic programs for employees, taking into account their requirements and requests, motivation problems, creating a favorable psychological environment, etc. |
Financial risk associated with the passivity of capital, with the simultaneous placement of large funds in one project, etc. |
Proper financial management, timely placement of passive funds in profitable projects or the provision of profitable loans. The main thing is that the capital should not lie "dead weight", but work. Transfer of part of the risk to other firms by involving them in the financing of expensive and risky projects, the use of venture capital |
Managers' mistakes |
A more thorough system of control and verification, justified duplication, especially in critical business nodes, when a manager's mistake can be very costly. In this regard, it is useful to model the possible financial consequences of errors in the implementation of the most expensive projects. |
Changes in prices, demand, profit levels |
More accurate forecasting. Hedging and other risk mitigation techniques |
The risk of an incorrectly selected project |
Careful check of all arguments "for" and "against". Use of computer simulation for more accurate calculation of options in case of particular complexity of projects |
Unforeseen political events with severe consequences for this business |
This cannot always be foreseen and impossible to insure. But this must be taken into account as a force majeure circumstance, that is, to have some kind of life and psychological schemes |
Unforeseen economic shocks and natural disasters, environmental disasters |
This should be taken into account as a force majeure event. |
National and international unrest |
This can be taken into account and foreseen. Severe consequences can be avoided with the help of proper public relations work, taking into account the national psychological conditions in the area. |
Unforeseen government regulations (changes in laws, prices, taxes, etc.) |
In Russia, this is especially important. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully study the by-laws of the main laws, as well as carefully monitor the situation. Absolutely unforeseen decisions do not happen. They are prepared in advance after the processing of public opinion. |
The risk of destruction of property, the value of which is small compared to the financial parameters of the entire company |
Self-insurance through internal measures |
The risk of destruction of a large amount of the same type of property |
self-insurance |
Annex 2
Various types of risk that it is advisable to insure with the help of insurance companies
Type of risk |
A way to reduce negative consequences |
Fire and other natural disasters |
Insurance of amounts of probable losses |
Car crashes |
Car insurance |
Risk of destruction or damage to cargo during transportation |
Cargo value insurance (marine, aviation and other types of transport insurance) |
The risk from the negligence of the company's employees |
Insurance of the cost of possible losses from the negligence of employees |
The risk from the probable dishonesty of employees, which can cause material and moral damage to the company |
Acquisition of "honesty" bonds from an insurance company |
The risk of non-fulfillment of obligations by one of the employees or a group of employees, on which the implementation of the entire project depends |
Purchase of "guarantee" bonds |
The risk of suspension of business activity of the company (various reasons) |
Insurance of the amount of possible losses for the entire period of business interruption |
The risk of possible death or illness of the head, leading employee of the company, on whose intellectual or other qualified activity the success of the company depends |
Insurance for the amount of possible losses. This is especially important in the most critical period |
Risk due to possible illness, death or accident to an employee |
Insurance in insurance companies |
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FEDERAL STATE BUDGET EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION OF HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION
"Togliatti State University"
Institute of Finance, Economics and Management
Department of accounting, analysis and audit
Course work
discipline: "Comprehensive economic analysis of economic activity"
on the topic: Analysis of risks in the activities of the enterprise on the example of JSC "Galantus"
Performed:
Tolkacheva N.
Group Ekb-0901
Scientific adviser:
O.V. Schneider
Tolyatti-2012
Introduction
The essence of the occurrence of risks in the activities of the enterprise
1 The role and economic content of risks in the financial and economic activities of the enterprise
2. Classification and methods for assessing risks in the activities of the enterprise
3 Risk management
Analysis of risks in the activities of the enterprise JSC "Galantus"
1 Technical and economic characteristics of OJSC Galantus
2 Risk assessment in the activities of OJSC Galantus
Ways to reduce and manage risks in OJSC Galantus
Conclusion
List of used literature
Application
business risk assessment economic activity
Introduction
The changes that have taken place in the Russian economy in recent years have revealed a number of debatable and topical problems that are of a theoretical and applied nature and are extremely important for the sustainable functioning and development of the economy. Priority issues include issues of theory, methodology and practice of making managerial decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty.
Risk is danger! Risk is a possible qualitative or quantitative deterioration in the state of an object in the future. In the economic literature, it is usually from these concepts that they start. At the same time, threats of manifestation of damage are characterized by the optional negative impact, the uncertainty of parameters and consequences, such as time, strength of manifestation, and the amount of damage. These uncertainties are due to ignorance of the law, lack of information and lack of skills in managing economic risks (insufficient qualifications of management personnel).
Any business is associated with risks. Any successful business is associated with great risks, and the success of the enterprise depends on how businessmen, managers, managers deal with these risks. Someone manages risks intuitively, someone consciously, but any activity requires analysis and further risk management for the successful and full development of the enterprise. The most important feature of entrepreneurship is the presence of risk both at the stage of creation of the organization and during its further functioning. Any enterprise is at risk of losing property, valuables, money, that is, any type of economic resources, including labor and time, because labor losses and loss of time cause serious damage to business results. It is possible to formulate the main tasks of the risk management system: increasing financial stability, improving risk management mechanisms. The purpose of this course work is to analyze the adoption of the optimal management decision, taking into account the factor of uncertainty and risk, using the example of a specific organization, JSC Galantus.
The goal set determined the main objectives of the study, which are as follows:
Consider the concepts of uncertainty and risk;
Consider the process of influence of uncertainty and risk on the activities of the organization;
· to consider the scientific methods of decision-making recommended in the conditions of uncertainty and risk;
· put into practice the development of managerial decisions under conditions of uncertainty and risk on the example of the organization OJSC "Galantus".
The object of the study is the uncertainties and risks related to the activities of organizations in any industry, and the subject of the study is the adoption of managerial decisions aimed at obtaining the least losses in the face of uncertainty and risk.
1. The essence of the occurrence of risks in the activities of the enterprise
1.1 The role and economic content of risks in the financial and economic activities of the enterprise
As you know, the condition for the effectiveness of any market activity is economic freedom, which implies that an economic agent (producer, consumer) has a certain set of rights that guarantee him autonomous, independent decision-making. However, economic freedom is also a source of taffy uncertainty, since the freedom of one economic agent is accompanied simultaneously by the freedom of others.
Risks are a formalization of uncertainty, and the definition of risks is a way to measure it. After all, despite the fact that the feeling of uncertainty is almost always unpleasant, in some cases it delivers more inconvenience, in some - less. To reduce uncertainty means to reduce the number of risks, where everything is clear and transparent, there are no risks and there cannot be. But the situation of "total uncertainty" is very rare in our world. Perhaps, due to the fact that risks are closely related to uncertainty, there are a lot of interpretations of the concept of "risk". According to some definitions, risk is the danger of a negative event occurring, according to others, damage due to negative events, and third interpretations call risk the likelihood of something both negative and positive, etc. Especially a lot of discussion is connected with the definition of risk as a necessarily negative event. After all, positive, but unplanned events are usually not considered risks.
Indeed, risk is characterized by the probability of an event occurring and implies, if not danger, then at least the impact of this event on business, life, project, etc. In domestic, economic science, there are essentially no generally recognized theoretical provisions on entrepreneurial risk, in fact, risk assessment methods have not been developed in relation to certain production situations and types of entrepreneurial activity, there are no recommendations on ways and means to reduce and prevent risk.
Of particular interest is a comparative consideration of the classical and neoclassical theory of entrepreneurial risk and their economic application. In the study of entrepreneurial profit, such representatives of the classical theory as J. Mill, I.U. Senior distinguished in the structure of entrepreneurial income a percentage (as a share of invested capital), an entrepreneur's wages and a risk payment (as a compensation for a possible risk associated with entrepreneurial activity). In the classical theory of entrepreneurial risk, the latter is identified with the mathematical expectation of losses that may occur as a result of the chosen decision. The risk here is nothing but the damage that is caused by the implementation of this decision.
Such a one-sided interpretation of the essence of risk caused a sharp objection from some foreign economists, which led to the development of a different understanding of the content of entrepreneurial risk.
In the 30s of our century, economists A. Marshall and A. Pigou developed the foundations of the neoclassical theory of entrepreneurial risk. The foundations of this theory are as follows: an entrepreneur operating under conditions of uncertainty and whose profit is a random variable, when concluding a transaction, is guided by two criteria:
The size of the expected profit;
The magnitude of its possible fluctuations.
The behavior of an entrepreneur, according to the neoclassical theory of risk, is due to the concept of marginal utility. This means that if there are two options, for example, capital investments that give the same expected return, the entrepreneur chooses the option in which the expected return fluctuations are smaller. According to neoclassical theory, for the entrepreneur, the true profit of the same expected size, but associated with possible fluctuations, is less interesting. The problem of risk in our country is quite "ripe". The formation of market relations in Russia was a prerequisite for a deeper development of risk theory in the domestic economic literature. Fundamental for all modern definitions of risk in Russian science is the interpretation in the famous dictionary of S.I. Ozhegov. So, risk, according to Ozhegov's dictionary, is "an act of failure, in the hope of a happy outcome ...". More specifically, these are:
action, activity as a condition for the emergence of risk;
action at random, in other words, it is an activity without preliminary calculation, with the hope of a favorable event, or goal-setting, goal-fulfilling activity;
activity “in the hope of a happy outcome” - this is not about any activity, but about one that satisfies needs; based on them, setting goals and predicting a successful result.
In fact, the definition of risk in Russian and foreign literature can be combined into the following groups. The first group includes such definitions in which the risk is understood as a probability, deviating from the planned results. In the second group, the emphasis is on the possibility of quantitative or qualitative risk assessment.
In the third group, the concept of "risk" is revealed through the activity of the subject: the action "at random" in the hope of a happy outcome: the mode of action in an unclear, uncertain environment; the choice of alternatives in a situation of uncertainty, the realization of the ability to creatively use the element of uncertainty. From the above, it should be concluded that risk is primarily a set of events, and it has a set (discrete or continuous) of its implementation, each of which has its own probability and amount of damage. A chain of successive steps leading to the final, main event is a scenario. Risk situations themselves are generally characterized by such features as rarity; uniqueness; continuity; repeatability. A risky situation can have different consequences, i.e. not only losses, but also incomes, benefits. Therefore, the following risk functions are distinguished:
Regulatory (stimulating): has a contradictory character and acts in two forms: constructive and destructive. The risk is aimed at obtaining results in an unconventional way. Risk plays the role of a catalyst, for example, in solving innovative, investment problems, which means that the stimulating aspect of risk acts.
The protective function is manifested in the fact that, since risk is a stable state of the economic system, social protection, legal, political and economic guarantees are needed that exclude punishment in case of failure and stimulate acquittal risk.
Risk performs an innovative function by stimulating the search for non-traditional solutions to the problems facing the economic entity.
The analytical function of risk is related to the fact that the presence of risk implies the need to choose one of the possible solutions, in connection with which the economic entity analyzes all possible alternatives in the decision-making process.
Thus, risks are a complex dynamic category, and therefore they need to be assessed in all activities.
1.2 Classification and methods for assessing risks in the activities of the enterprise
The composition of the risks considered in economic studies is closely related to the characteristics of entrepreneurial activity and the environment in which it is carried out.
There are a number of well-defined principles used in the scientific literature that can be used as the basis for classifying risks and, accordingly, used in the development of protection strategies against them.
Various methods and tools are used in risk management, therefore, a scientifically based classification is needed, which will allow systematizing risks and identifying specific areas for their reduction or optimization.
Under the classification of risks understand the distribution of risks into specific groups in accordance with certain common features and to achieve the goals. Science-based risk classification contributes to a clear definition of the place of each risk in the system and creates potential opportunities for the effective application of appropriate methods, risk management techniques.
In the economic literature that studies risks and related problems, there is no single coherent system for their classification. In different classifications, risks are detailed in different ways, divided into groups, etc. We can safely say that there are even more risk classifications than risk definitions. In a number of works by domestic authors, such as V. Abchuk, A. Algin, G. Kleiner, V. Severuk, B. Raizberg, V. Rotar, I. Shumperi, etc., there are radically different approaches to risk classification. Some distinguish two types of risks: the risk associated with the possible technical failure of production, and the risk caused by commercial success. Yu.Osipov considers three types of entrepreneurial risk: inflationary, financial and operational.
The most important features underlying the risk classification are the following:
time of occurrence;
main factors of occurrence;
nature of accounting and consequences;
sphere of occurrence.
In the work of I.T. Balabanva "Risk Management" proposes a hierarchical system for classifying economic risks, schematically shown in Figure 1.1, the structure of which includes groups, categories, types, subspecies and varieties of risks. In accordance with the presented hierarchy, depending on the possible result, risks are pure and speculative .. and if pure risks lead to the possibility of obtaining a negative or zero result, then speculative risks are expressed by the possibility of obtaining both a positive and a negative result.
Rice. 1.1 Hierarchical risk classification system
As for foreign practice, one of the first to propose a classification of risks was the well-known economist John Keynes, who considered three categories of risks and, most likely, did this as part of a global study of the general theory of employment, interest and money:
· Entrepreneurial risk - the risk of not receiving the expected return on investment;
· "Lender" risk - the risk of non-repayment of the loan, including legal (avoidance of repayment of the loan) and credit risk (insufficiency of collateral);
· The risk of change in the value of the monetary unit - the probability of loss of funds as a result of changes in the exchange rate of the national currency.
Credit and legal risk are present in all classifications.
Consider the main types of risks according to various classification criteria.
Commercial risk is associated with the risk of losses in the process of financial and economic activity. On a structural basis, commercial risks are divided into:
A) property risks associated with the likelihood of loss of property of a citizen, entrepreneur due to collapse, sabotage, negligence, overvoltage of technical and technological load on equipment;
B) production risks associated with a loss from stopping the enterprise as a result of various factors, and primarily with damage or disposal of fixed and working capital;
C) trading risks associated with loss due to delayed payments for goods and services, non-delivery of goods, refusal to pay during the period of transportation of goods, etc.;
D) financial risks associated with the purchasing power of money, capital investment, the probability of loss of financial resources.
Financial risks include:
· Inflationary risk is an increase in the price level as a result of overfulfillment of money circulation channels with excess money supply in excess of the need for trade, as a result of which money incomes depreciate in terms of purchasing power faster than they grow;
· Deflationary risk is the risk that with an increase in the purchasing power of money, the price level will fall, the economic conditions of business will worsen and incomes will decrease;
· Currency risk - the risk caused by the danger of losses associated with changes in the exchange rate of foreign currencies against the national currency, when conducting foreign trade, credit, foreign exchange transactions on stock and commodity exchanges. Currency risk includes operational risks (the risk of loss of profit caused by adverse changes in the exchange rate) and translational risks (associated with changes in the price of assets and liabilities in foreign currency caused by exchange rate fluctuations.)
· Liquidity risk - associated with the possibility of losses in the sale of securities or other goods due to changes in the quality assessment;
· Investment risk - associated with lost profits, as well as a decrease in profitability, the danger of non-payment of debt.
Yield reduction risk is a type of investment risk that may arise as a result of a decrease in the amount of interest and dividends on portfolio investments, on deposits and loans. It includes the following types of risks:
· interest rate risk - the danger of losses by commercial banks, credit institutions, investment institutions, companies as a result of the excess of interest rates paid by them on attracted funds over the rate on loans granted.
price risk - the risk of changes in the price of a debt obligation due to an increase or decrease in interest rates;
credit risk - risk associated with the risk of non-payment by the borrower of principal and interest due to the creditor. Property risk is associated with credit - this is the risk in a credit transaction associated with the condition or quality of the lender's property.
The risk of direct financial loss includes:
exchange risk;
Selective risk
the risk of bankruptcy.
However, there are other types of risks.
The risk of contagion is the risk that the problems of subsidiaries and associated companies will spread to the parent company, and vice versa.
Non-insurable risks - risks, the probability of which is difficult to calculate even in the most general form and in which they are considered too large for insurance.
As well as tax risk, organizational, innovative, industry, external and internal, regional risks.
With this variety of risks, assessing the damage to an object from the manifestation of an adverse event is the most difficult problem, since in practice it is usually not possible to obtain an unambiguous and universally recognized value. Moreover, the theory of risk, as a rule, deals with the expected damage under the assumed known strength, nature of the event and the degree of protection of the object. From this remark, an important conclusion for the theory and practice of risk analysis follows: "absolutely objective and unambiguous assessments of damage in the vast majority of situations cannot be obtained." Often, damage indicators used outside the framework of economic and legal risk-analysis relations in a particular area of activity can be considered economically meaningless.
Usually, when developing a method for calculating damage, which is supposed to be widely used in practice, they try to take into account a certain set of minimum requirements. These include:
Simplicity in terms of application.
2. Orientation to the minimum amount of initial information.
Accounting for the features of the object.
Accounting as possible more losses without significant complication of calculations.
Accounting for patterns of change in the nature and extent of damage over time, taking into account the changing strength of the impact
Compliance of damage assessments with economic and legal relations in force in the state and regions, and a number of others.
In order to bring the positions of different subjects closer together, they usually try to structure its total value by dividing it into relatively independent elements, for each of which assessment methods adequate to their content can be used. For example, it is advisable to divide damages by recipients (objects of influence): by regions, enterprises, buildings, structures, equipment. The total amount of damage in such a situation can be obtained by summing up the damages of individual independent groups of recipients, which, in turn, can be divided according to the signs of the place and time of manifestation of events into direct and indirect.
Direct damage is usually understood as losses directly caused by the manifestation of events. Their examples are the loss of wealth during an earthquake, the decline in the value of shares due to the crisis, the loss of capital due to the default of borrowers.
Indirect damage characterizes losses caused by adverse changes in the external and internal environment.
In general, the entire set of methods for assessing the economic damage of an object can be divided into three main groups: direct counting method (reflects all elements in the chain of causal relationships. It is supposed to evaluate the effects that arise between all the information in this chain and calculate the various components of the loss items of the object) ; methods of indirect assessment (based on some assumptions regarding the patterns of damage formation.); combined methods (various combinations, combinations of methods that complement each other in solving individual problems of risk damage assessment).
1.3 Risk management
In the risk management system, an important role belongs to the correct choice of risk prevention and minimization measures, which largely determine its effectiveness. The risk reduction system includes certain methods and ways:
Obtaining comprehensive information about the upcoming choice and result.
2. Risk avoidance.
Diversification.
Reservation of funds to cover unforeseen expenses.
Limiting.
Hedging.
Risk insurance, self-insurance.
Checking business partners and terms of the deal. Business planning.
Selection of personnel for an entrepreneurial organization.
10. Transfer of risk.
11. Other methods.
The choice of a particular method of minimizing the risk depends on the experience and capabilities of the entrepreneur and any other manager. For a more effective result, as a rule, a combination of methods is used.
In his activities, the manager encounters many risks, therefore, in addition to the main methods of minimizing them, he uses specific methods that are used only in this case. Ways to minimize the most common risks are shown in Table 1.2. (Annex 2)
Indeed, actions aimed at mitigating risk can be very different. People sign up for extreme driving courses to reduce the likelihood of an accident in difficult conditions - this is also a strategy to mitigate, minimize, eliminate risk. The choice of one or another method depends on the specific situation, the degree of risk and the capabilities of the enterprise. This is what determines the fundamental decision: to accept the risk, reducing its negative consequences by various methods, or avoid it.
The firm in the course of carrying out business activities may refuse to carry out financial transactions or from the type of activity related to high level risk. This direction of risk neutralization is the simplest and most radical, it will allow you to completely avoid potential losses, but does not at all contribute to making profit associated with risky activities.
When concluding any transaction, in order to reduce the risk under economic contracts, the entrepreneur needs to check the prospective partner. The basic rule of business: "trust, but verify." A possible way to avoid mistakes when choosing a partner is to create your own system for collecting and analyzing information about potential or existing counterparties. As a model, in this case, you can use the Due Diligence system - "due attention", practiced by Western banks in relation to their clients. This system provides protection against all kinds of fraud. One of the main tools of such a system is a questionnaire, which includes questions about the name of the counterparty company and the addresses of its offices over the past two or three years; about the types of business it carries out. The questionnaire may contain questions about the company's partners and their addresses, it includes questions about the financial condition of the company and the estimated turnover or future average account balance. The most difficult questions of the questionnaire are related to the origin of the capital of the company. Such a questionnaire provides preliminary information about the client, and if something in his answers is alarming, additional research should be carried out, including the search for confirmations (or refutations) of the data received, the search for facts that the partner has kept silent about, and also verification of information through others. counterparties.
Risk diversification is perhaps the most complex and interesting method of risk management that requires high professionalism. It represents the use of the economic and mathematical concept of "negative correlation" in economic practice. The invested funds are directed to completely independent, unrelated transactions and projects. In this case, when a risk event occurs and losses appear on one transaction, you can count on a successful and profitable outcome of another. Moreover, it is advisable to focus on negatively correlated outcomes, that is, to choose investment values (objects) with directly opposite profitability vectors. Then the profits on one transaction will be able to compensate for possible losses on the other.
When forming a portfolio of securities, the problem of risk diversification is given particularly serious attention. First of all, the "rule of a dozen" applies. It is necessary to provide a sufficient variety of securities. Therefore, generally accepted practice suggests that a bank's portfolio should contain at least twelve blocks of shares in a wide variety of companies. Further, attention is paid to the level of profitability and the degree of risk of securities. High-yield securities usually carry a significant degree of risk. Securities with acceptable risk bring, accordingly, a very moderate return. And low-risk securities are ineffective and not interesting for the bank. A way out of this situation is offered by the “rule of five fingers”. It follows from it that in order to form an optimal portfolio, out of every five stocks, one must be low-risk, three with normal, acceptable risk, and one more high-risk, but also high-yield.
In the financial sector of the economy, in addition, a method of risk diversification, called "risk hedging", is often used. Risk hedging involves limiting the size of losses by financial instruments, but as a result, profits too. It is carried out in the form of concluding parallel financial compensation transactions, when the possible loss on one transaction is compensated by the possible profit of a friend. There are many ways to hedge risks, but the main, most used and frequently encountered are options, futures and swap transactions.
The next step in solving the problem of risk management is to study the possibility of full or partial self-insurance of the transaction. Self-insurance is nothing more than taking risks on oneself and, undoubtedly, is the cheapest (except perhaps for the refusal of risks) way to deal with risks. It is assumed that possible damage will be covered by current funds or with the help of a reserve fund. Therefore, it is obvious that the use of self-insurance opportunities is very limited. Basically, this method justifies itself if the probability of a negative outcome and the amount of possible loss are not large.
When using self-insurance, you need to be aware that the cost-effectiveness of this method turns into some negative aspects. First of all, it is the "death" of working capital. The company is forced to keep considerable funds in reserve, they cannot be counted on when concluding new, often interesting and effective contracts, they are impossible and dangerous to put into circulation. However, there is still a danger that a “losing streak” will go: against the backdrop of low financial income, losses will overtake one after another in a short period of time, and any reserve funds will still not be enough. All this causes uncertainty and nervousness among the management, which will certainly be transferred to all the staff of the company. If loss prevention and self-insurance do not provide the desired protection against risk and only slightly reduce it, which is quite likely in today's business, one can apply the most common and widely used, already traditional method of risk management, which is insurance. The essence of this method is that the entrepreneur takes an insurance company as a partner in the transaction and assigns to it, after the conclusion of the relevant contract and the payment of insurance premiums, a significant part of the expected risks. Unlike all sectors and sectors of the economy, where the risk for an entrepreneur is an undesirable side effect, in the insurance business, risks are the main field of activity. That is, the risks of the entrepreneur are assumed by the professional.
When deciding on the use of insurance, one must keep in mind that, firstly, the risk must be of a random nature, a negative outcome must not be pre-programmed and included in the deal. Secondly, only losses that can be measured and evaluated using natural and monetary indicators are insured. And, finally, the risk itself cannot be an object of insurance. Such an object is the inventory and cash of the company [21, p.65].
Note that economic risks are an inevitable part of entrepreneurial activity, since they are immanent in the market. Risks cannot be eliminated, but it is quite possible to reduce a possible loss. This can be achieved through the application of risk management techniques. Of course, risk management is associated with certain costs for the company, but its implementation is necessary and justified. By managing risk, a firm sacrifices less in order to retain more. It replaces the possible occurrence of significant losses with relatively small, well-defined costs of risk management.
2. Analysis of risks in the activities of the enterprise JSC "Galantus"
2.1 Technical and economic characteristics of JSC "Galantus"
OJSC "Galantus" dates back to January 7, 1979, when the state farm "Decorative Cultures" began its activities on the basis of "Zelenstroy". The main industrial crops were roses, carnations, seedlings for landscaping, potted crops. The bulk of the protected ground area was made up of glass greenhouses with a total area of about 3,000 square meters. m.
August 1994, the state farm was reorganized into a joint-stock company "Galantus". Translated into Russian, "galanthus" means "snowdrop".
Today, the company's activities are well known to flower growers in Russia and abroad. OJSC "Galantus" is a farm that meets the world standards of floriculture, using modern technology and equipment. The total area of protected ground is 4.2 ha. More than 5 million cut flowers are grown annually on this area.
A professional flower grower today is interested in new crops and varieties that are highly rated in Europe, adapted to Russian conditions and provide good business in the flower market.
Accounting in OAO "Galantus" is carried out in accordance with the standard chart of accounts for accounting of financial and economic activities of enterprises; standard forms of financial statements and instructions for their application and completion; other regulatory legal acts regulating the accounting of operations. When carrying out activities, the forms of documents are used, determined by the albums of unified forms of primary accounting documentation, developed by the republican governing bodies. Documents, the forms of which are not provided for in these albums, contain mandatory details in accordance with the current legislation. The specifics of accounting in OAO Galantus are summarized in the Order on Accounting Policy, which is annually approved by the General Director of OAO Galantus. The accounting policy determines the organization of workflow, the procedure for processing information (using accounting registers), the procedure for conducting an inventory, etc. The balance sheet of the enterprise is presented in Appendix 1. Open Joint Stock Company Galantus, in accordance with the current legislation, is recognized as a limited liability company, which operates on the basis of charter and legislation of the Russian Federation.
Table 2.1 Main economic indicators of JSC Galantus
Indicators |
Change (+,-) |
Growth rate, % |
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1. Revenue from sales, thousand rubles. |
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2. Cost of goods sold, thousand rubles. |
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3. Administrative and commercial expenses, thousand rubles. |
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4. Profit from the sale, thousand rubles. |
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5. Profit before taxation, thousand rubles. |
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6. Net profit, thousand rubles. |
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7. The cost of fixed assets, thousand rubles. |
--1154*91,90-136273147■ |
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8. The value of assets, thousand rubles. |
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9. Own capital, thousand rubles. |
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10. Borrowed capital, thousand rubles. |
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11. Number of PPP, pers. |
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13. Capital productivity, rub. (1/7) |
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14. Asset turnover, times (1/8) |
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15. Return on equity based on net profit, % (6/9)*100% |
12,5*100%= 12,5% |
0,136*100% 13,6% |
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16. Return on sales, % (4/1)*100% |
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17. Return on equity on profit before tax, % (5/(9+10))*100% |
43947/(336039+64841)=43947/400880=10,9% |
52049/(363590+134467)=52049/498057=10,5% |
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18. Costs per ruble of sales proceeds, ((2 + 3)/1)*100 kop. |
After analyzing the obtained indicators, we can draw conclusions and build diagrams for the most significant indicators.
In Diagram 2.1, we can clearly see the difference in sales revenue for 2010 and 2011. Sales revenue is a regular source of income for the organization from all possible receipts of funds, serves as the main performance indicator of the enterprise, according to its receipt, it can be judged that the products sold in terms of volume, quality and do not meet market demand, since for the period under review it has drastically declined.
Diagram 2.1. Sales proceeds
Having considered the next indicator - the cost of goods sold (diagram 2.2), we see that the sales revenue at Galantus OJSC fell not due to quality or lack of demand, but due to a sharp reduction in production capacity and the volume of output of goods.
Diagram 2.2. Cost of goods sold
When considering the profit from sale indicator (diagram 2.3), one can notice a significant increase in this indicator in 2011.
Diagram 2.3. Profit from sale
Also, according to the balance sheet data, it can be seen that in 2011, the company OJSC "Galantus" significantly increased the amount of borrowed funds compared to the previous year. (Diagram 2.4)
Diagram 2.4 Borrowed capital
The company JSC "Galantus" has reduced the volume of sales and reduced the cost of production by purchasing cheap quality resources, thereby increasing the profit from the sale, as well as the company has taken a large loan, we can conclude that the company is going to invest all its funds in any profitable project (any change in the structure of production) expand your production, or change the specification
2.2 Risk assessment in the activities of OJSC Galantus
The main objective of the methodology for determining the degree of risk is to systematize and develop an integrated approach to determining the degree of risk affecting the financial and economic activities of the enterprise.
The accounting statements of the enterprise are used as initial information when assessing financial risks: the balance sheet, which fixes the property and financial position of the organization as of the reporting date; profit and loss statement presenting the results of operations for the reporting period.
The central place in the assessment of entrepreneurial risk is occupied by the analysis and forecasting of possible losses of resources in the course of entrepreneurial activity.
Quantitative risk assessment, in this paper we will consider an investment project related to the numerical determination of cured individual risks and the risk of the project as a whole. The task of quantitative analysis is to numerically measure the degree of influence of changes in project risk factors, tested for risk, on the behavior of project performance criteria.
JSC Galantus has been conducting investment activities for many years. And for 2013 the company has two investment options. It has been established that when investing capital in enterprise A, making a profit in the amount of 250 thousand rubles has a probability of 0.6, and in event B - making a profit in the amount of 300 thousand rubles. - probability 0.4. then the expected profit from capital investment (expectation) will be6
for event A - 150 thousand rubles (250 * 0.6);
for event B - 120 thousand rubles (300 * 0.4);
The probability of an event occurring can be determined by an objective or subjective method. Using the objective method, we will obtain a definition of probability based on the calculation of the frequency with which a given event occurs. Capital investment in event A profit in the amount of 250 thousand rubles. was obtained in 120 cases out of 200, the probability of such a profit will be 0.6 (120:200).
An important place in this case is occupied by an expert assessment, i.e., an examination, processing and use of its results in substantiating the value of the probability. Here the degree of risk is measured by two criteria:
mean expected value (MAV) is the value of the magnitude of the event. Is a weighted average of all possible outcomes;
fluctuations in the possible outcome.
Thanks to the data provided by the statistical department, we know that when investing in activity A out of 120 cases, the profit is 250 thousand rubles. was obtained in 48 cases (probability 0.4), profit 200 thousand. rub. was obtained in 36 cases (probability 0.3) and a profit of 300 thousand rubles. was obtained in 36 cases (probability 0.3), then:
POPs = (250*0.4+200*0.3+300*0.3) = 250k rub.
Similarly, it was found that when investing in activity B, the average profit was:
POPs \u003d (400 * 0.3 + 300 * 0.5 + 150 * 0.2) \u003d 300 thousand rubles.
Comparing the two amounts of expected profit when investing in event A and B, we can conclude that when investing in event A, the amount of profit received ranges from 200 to 300 thousand rubles. and the average value is 250 thousand rubles; when investing capital in event B, the amount of profit received ranges from 150 to 400 and the average value is 300 thousand rubles. But we know that the average value is a generalized quantitative characteristic and will not allow us to make a decision in favor of any result. For the final decision-making, it is necessary to measure the variability of indicators (IC), i.e. determine the degree of variability in a possible outcome.
To do this, we use two closely related values:
· Dispersion (formula 2.1) - the weighted average of the squared deviations of the actual results from the average expected.
formula 2.1
where s is the dispersion;
C- average expected value; - number of cases of observation (frequency).
Calculation of variances for activities A and B is presented in Table 2.1.
Table 2.1. Calculation of variances when investing in activity A and B
event number |
Earned profit, thousand rubles |
Number of cases of observation |
(C- `C) |
2 (C- `C) |
2 (C- `C)*n |
Activity A |
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Total `C= |
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Activity B |
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Total `C= |
|
|
For analysis, the coefficient of variation (V) is usually used. It is the ratio of the standard deviation to the arithmetic mean and shows the degree of deviation of the obtained values. CV can vary from 0 to 100%. The larger the CV, the stronger the variance. The following qualitative assessment of different CVs has been established:
lo 10% - weak fluctuation;
10-25: - moderate;
over 25% - high.
Calculate the standard deviation when investing in activity A. It will be:
d = Ö180000/120 = ±38.7;
For activity B:
d = Ö750000/100= ±86.6;
Calculate the coefficient of variation for event A:
V \u003d 38.7 / 250 * 100 \u003d 15.5%;
Coefficient of variation for event B:
V=86.6/300*100=29.8%
According to the calculation data, we can see that the coefficient of variation when investing in event A is less than when investing in event B, which allows us to conclude that the decision is in favor of investing in event A.
3. Ways to reduce and manage risks in OJSC Galantus
Having reviewed the main technical and economic indicators of OAO Galantus, we found that in 2011, sales revenue decreased by 93% compared to 2010 as a result of rising product prices; despite the fact that the cost of goods sold decreased by 87.7%, this growth does not have a significant impact on net profit, but in general, such indicators are a negative trend in the work of the enterprise.
In 2011, the increase in current assets by 124% was due to an increase in accounts receivable by almost six times.
The amount of equity capital in 2011 increased by 108%, respectively, as a result of an increase in retained earnings.
The decrease in borrowed capital in 2010 is associated with a decrease in short-term loans and borrowings and the share of accounts payable, and the increase in 2011 is due to an increase in short-term loans and borrowings by 207%.
After analyzing the absolute indicators of financial stability, we conclude that in 2009 and 2010 the enterprise belonged to the fourth type of financial stability, i.e. it was in a financial crisis, in which it was threatened with bankruptcy, and in 2011 the enterprise was in an unstable financial situation, which is characterized by insolvency, but it already belonged to the third type of financial stability.
After analyzing the solvency, it was revealed that the company does not have absolute liquidity, which indicates that the solvency of the organization is at a low level. After the analysis of the financial condition and risks, it was revealed that OJSC Galantus has a high risk of bankruptcy, as it is in an unstable financial position.
Therefore, the measures we have analyzed for investing assets can improve the financial condition.
Financial stabilization at the enterprise in a crisis situation is consistently carried out in two stages:
) elimination of insolvency;
) restoration of financial stability.
The essence of the restoration of solvency lies in the maneuver of cash flows to restore the balance between their spending and receipt.
The essence of restoring financial stability is the most rapid and radical reduction of inefficient expenses. Stopping unprofitable industries is the first step that needs to be taken. If unprofitable production is not feasible or impossible to sell, then it must be stopped in order to immediately eliminate further losses.
Conclusion
Man is constantly faced with risk. Often without complete information, we have to make a choice, which, unfortunately, is not always the right one. Any entrepreneur always acts at his own peril and risk, the further activities of the organization will depend on this person, on his foresight and knowledge. One of his main tasks is to assess the risk and minimize it in order to get the maximum profit in the event of a successful transaction and incur minimal losses in the event of an unsuccessful transaction. Incorrectly determining the influence of some factors, the manager can lead the company to collapse. Therefore, the importance of such qualities as experience, qualifications, and, of course, intuition, increases dramatically. It is necessary to constantly analyze the existing situation, it is very important to use the experience of other organizations (the opportunity to learn from the mistakes of others).
At the same time, all approaches are characterized by a common goal: it is necessary to assess the levels of risks inherent in certain types of activities and develop effective measures that can reduce these levels to acceptable values. The similarity of goals in this case predetermines a single methodology for solving these problems - the methodology of risk analysis.
Risk management, in general, should be considered as one of the activities aimed at improving the stability and safety of the facility, the efficiency of its operation and development.
The main difficulty of risk management lies in the fact that there are no "ready-made" recipes. Each issue that needs to be considered in the enterprise needs its own unique approach.
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Attachment 1
Annex 2
Table 1.2. Ways to minimize risks
Type of risk Ways to reduce risk Commercial risk Correctly determine and maintain the ratio of financial indicators; increase the return on investment in your business financial risk Timely allocate passive funds to profitable projects or provide loans Manager mistakes Introduce control and duplication in the nodal links of the business Wrong selected project squeak Carefully check all the pros and cons, if necessary, use computer simulation to accurately calculate all the options Economic fluctuations and changes in demand Fluctuations and changes in demand must be predicted and used in business plans Risk of suboptimal resource allocation Clearly define priorities in the distribution of resources depending on the planned number of products produced Actions of competitors Possible actions of competitors should be foreseen on the basis of a systematic analysis of their activities. Employee dissatisfaction Carefully consider socio-economic programs for employees, taking into account their requirements and requests. Create a favorable environment in the team Low sales volumes Conduct thorough analytical work on the selection of target markets Risk of information leakage Careful screening and selection of employees, especially scientific and technical personnel
Introduction 3
1. Fundamentals of the theory of business risk insurance 5
1.1. Goals and objectives of business risk insurance 5
1.2. Profit insurance 10
2. Analysis of entrepreneurial risks of the enterprise LLC "Eurotex" 19
2.1. Analysis of financial and economic activity 19
2.2 Business risk analysis at Eurotex LLC 24
3 Suggestions for improving the risk management system at the enterprise 34
Conclusion 39
References 42
Introduction
Analysis of business risks of an enterprise
Fragment of the work for review
It does not provide for immediate delivery of the goods, but only fixes the price or the method of its calculation upon receipt of the goods. In transactions made on our exchanges, prepayment is widespread, which often amounts to 100% of the cost of the purchased goods. The third type of contracts is futures transactions, which are concluded for a certain term in relation to future goods (in fact, they may not yet be). The purpose of these transactions is to protect the seller and the buyer from losses due to adverse price movements, that is, these transactions simultaneously perform the function of insurance against possible losses. However, since the futures agreement is concluded in relation to goods that must be produced by the seller and delivered to the buyer, here there are grounds for insurance against force majeure or insurmountable obstacles to the execution of a transaction. Currency risk insurance to a certain extent has some similar prerequisites with exchange risk insurance. But for the most part it is due to the specific conditions of foreign economic relations. Insurance of commercial risks. The object of insurance of commercial risks is the commercial activity of the insured, which provides for the investment of monetary and other resources in any type of production, work or services and the receipt of income from these investments after a certain period of time. This insurance seems to be one of the most difficult types of insurance both at the stage of concluding a contract, and during the entire period of its validity. The liability of an insurance company for insurance of commercial risks is to compensate the insured for losses incurred as a result of unfavorable, unpredictable changes in market conditions and the deterioration of other conditions for the implementation of commercial activities. The sum insured as the limit of liability is determined at the request of the insured, but, of course, with the consent of the insurance company. There are two options for establishing the sum insured: - the sum insured is set within the limits of the insured's capital investments in insured operations; - the sum insured includes not only capital costs, but also a certain (normative) profit that is expected from the costs. The purpose of commercial risk insurance is to in order to compensate the insured for possible losses if, after a certain period, the insured operations do not give the expected payback. The insurance indemnity is determined as the difference between the sum insured and the actual financial results from the insured commercial activity. Depending on the approach to establishing the sum insured, the content of insurance changes. In the first option, the costs of the insured are reimbursed. This is investment insurance. In the second option, the costs of the insured and the standard profit are reimbursed, so it can be called income (profit) insurance. Thus, the following types of insurance can be distinguished that cover commercial (economic, entrepreneurial) risks: loss of profit (income) due to stoppage of production (commercial activities), that is, insurance of indirect losses; - liability insurance of commodity producers; - insurance of short delivery and non-sale of products; - insurance of loans (risk of default and liability of the borrower); guarantees); - insurance of technical risks (insurance of construction and installation, operational risks, etc.); - insurance of employees of enterprises against theft and costs (guarantee insurance). Financial risks as a separate category are integral part commercial risks and are associated with the probability of loss of any sums of money (cash funds) or their shortfall. A feature of financial risk is the likelihood of damage as a result of any operations in the financial, credit and exchange areas, transactions with stock values, that is, the risk arising from the nature of these operations. Also, financial risks include the risk of indirect (collateral) financial damage (lost or lost profit) as a result of the occurrence of an insured event - stoppage of the production process due to loss or damage to the insured property. This applies, first of all, to manufacturing enterprises. Financial risks are indirectly related to property insurance and apply mainly to the financial, credit and exchange sectors. At the same time, there is one exception - financial risks include the risk of non-payment on a consumer loan, where one of the subjects of insurance may be an individual, not a legal entity. is a limited liability company "Eurotex" - LLC "Evrotex" is a distribution company operating in the market of alcoholic beverages. The main market for Eurotex LLC in this area is the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Since the beginning of the company's development, the main emphasis has been placed on wholesale sales of alcoholic beverages with the gradual development of a distribution network. The paper notes a quantitative increase in retail and a decrease in wholesale customers of the company. Being a legal entity, due to its organizational and legal form, it has an independent balance sheet, a seal with the name of the company and an indication of its location and bank account, as well as a charter. Wholesale company "Eurotex" was founded in 2004 and from the first years of work began to sell alcoholic beverages with delivery around the city and the region. At the moment, the location of the company is Krasnoyarsk, Tambovskaya st., 5, building 22, office. 5. The company is located in its own premises, where the company's office and warehouse are located. The company is intensively developing its logistics and warehousing business. Stable cooperation initially with leading Russian, and then with foreign manufacturers, allowed the company to work out reliable logistics schemes for working with clients. The company's product portfolio includes more than 1000 items of high-quality alcoholic beverages (vodka, cognac, whiskey, tequila, wine and champagne). The pricing policy of the company is aimed at covering all price niches. Like the assortment, the price is oriented towards different solvency of buyers, which depends on the segment in which the product is presented and on the end client with whom Eurotex works (retail, chain stores, Horeka, etc.). The company continues to develop actively and increase sales volumes by concluding long-term contracts. The geography of sales currently covers the city of Krasnoyarsk and the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Among the clients there are large supermarket chains of the city of Krasnoyarsk: Komandor, Krasny Yar, Okay hypermarkets, as well as small shops and pavilions within walking distance. In addition, such a market segment as Horeca is covered. As for working with clients outside the city, they are contacted through sales representatives of the company traveling to their place of residence. Working with regional clients is quite important for the company, since it is here that the trend of stable growth in sales and expansion of the client base is observed. It should be noted that the enterprise is an open system that can exist only if there is active interaction with the environment (external) environment. The commercial policy of the enterprise gives preference to the products of Russian manufacturers, the main emphasis in the commercial policy of the enterprise is on expanding and deepening the range of products sold. Mission enterprises - to create a base of loyal consumers and take a leading position in the wholesale and retail trade in alcoholic and non-alcoholic products in the Krasnoyarsk Territory by meeting the needs of buyers of high quality products, providing the company with the maximum annual income. The strategic goal of the enterprise is to capture a 35% share of the wholesale market alcoholic and non-alcoholic products through the development of a network of retail stores and wholesale trade of products. A linear-functional organizational structure is typical for the LLC Evroteks enterprise. Organizational structure of the enterprise in question is shown in Figure 2. 2.1. The organizational structure of the Fire LLC enterprise Many years of experience in using linear-functional management structures have shown that they are most effective where the management apparatus has to perform many routine, often repetitive procedures and operations with comparative stability of management tasks and functions: through a rigid system of connections, a clear the work of each subsystem and the organization as a whole. The advantages of a linear-functional management structure include: a deeper preparation of decisions and plans related to the specialization of employees; the release of the chief line manager from a deep analysis of problems; the ability to attract consultants and experts. The disadvantages of a linear-functional management structure include: the lack of close relationships between production departments; responsibility is not clear enough, since the person who prepares the decision, as a rule, does not participate in its implementation; an overly developed system of interaction along the vertical, namely: subordination according to the management hierarchy, that is, a tendency to excessive centralization. Direct management of the enterprise is carried out by the director of LLC Eurotex. Directly reporting to the Director are the HR Director, Commercial Director, Logistics Director and Financial Director. are presented in Table 2.1. Table 2.1 Key performance indicators of Evrotex LLC for 2010-2012 2012 to 2011 2012 to 2010 Proceeds from the sale of products, thousand rubles 288933903748501358117.34110.56129.73 From Table 2.1. it follows that the proceeds from the sale of goods, products, works, services in 2011 compared to 2010 increased by 2,502 thousand rubles. or by 6.17%. In 2012, the growth in sales revenue amounted to 72 thousand rubles compared to 2011. or 0.17%. The cost of goods sold, products, works, services of Eurotex LLC in 2010 amounted to 37,655 thousand rubles, in 2011 - 39,656 thousand rubles, in 2012 - 39,730 thousand rubles. ., that is, there is an increase in the cost of 2,001 thousand rubles. or 5.31% in 2011 compared to 2010 and a reduction of 286 thousand rubles. or 0.72% in 2012 compared to 2011. The gross profit of Eurotex LLC for the period under study has a pronounced upward trend. Thus, in 2010 it amounted to 2,889 thousand rubles, in 2011 - 3,390 thousand rubles, in 2012 - 3,748 thousand rubles. The data obtained indicate that the growth rate of the gross profit of Evrotex LLC is declining. In 2011 it was 17.34%, and in 2012 it was 10.56%. The profitability of sales is calculated by dividing the profit from the sale of products, works and services or net profit by the amount of revenue received. Rp2010 = (2889 thousand rubles / 40544 thousand rubles) * 100% = 7.13% Rp2011 = (3390 thousand rubles / 43046 thousand rubles) * 100% = 7.88% Rp2012 = (3748 RUB thousand / RUB 43,118 thousand) * 100% = 8.69% .Dynamics of key performance indicators of Eurotex LLC for 2010-2012 also shown in Fig. 2.1.Fig. 2.1. Dynamics of key performance indicators of Eurotex LLC for 2010-2012 Thus, in general, for the period 2010-2012. there is an upward trend in the main performance indicators. of consumers can reduce the competitive advantages of foreign manufacturers expand sales markets, but it is necessary to constantly conduct research and development in the field of products, and therefore expand the range. After analyzing the external environment, an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the organization is carried out. Successful planning requires not only a complete understanding of external problems, but also the internal potentialities and shortcomings of the organization. Five internal factors stand out for the study: 1. Marketing.2. Production.Z. Finance 4. Human resources. 5. Culture of the organization. Let's consider these factors in more detail. 1. Marketing. The direction of activity of Eurotex LLC is wholesale activity. At this stage, the company does not occupy a leading position among competing firms. The company approaches the selection and training of personnel with all responsibility and constantly conducts certification and advanced training of its employees. 2. Production Analysis of this factor shows that the price level in comparison with competitors is not much different. Since the conditions for a given sector of the market in which the enterprise exists are very close to the conditions of perfect competition, it is unlikely that a change in price can change profitability as a whole. The only case when a company can lower prices is when it captures the market. In this case, such measures can knock out smaller enterprises and take a leading position. 3. Finance An analysis of the commercial activity of Eurotex LLC from the moment it appeared on the market and to this day shows a continuous growth in most indicators. Timely payment of taxes, the ability to use their own financial resources to sell their products, speak of the excellent financial position of the company as a whole. Today, the company employs 120 people. The company has a fairly well-established recruitment system in accordance with the developed requirements for employees. In relation to its employees, the company uses a bonus system, draws up a work schedule, pays attention to nutrition, conducts trainings, seminars, training and certification .5.Culture of the organization The organization strives for further development. Eurotex LLC has a specially developed system of norms and rules for the behavior of people in an organization. The main rules in the work are the observance of labor discipline, the timely completion of tasks and the high-quality performance of their work. Strictly speaking, with a comprehensive risk assessment, it would be necessary to establish for each absolute or relative value of the magnitude of possible losses the corresponding probability of occurrence of such a magnitude. We single out certain areas or zones of risk depending on the magnitude of the losses (Fig. 2.2). Rice. 2.2. Scheme of risk zones The construction of a probability curve (or table) is intended to be the initial stage of risk assessment. But in relation to entrepreneurship, this is most often an extremely difficult task. Therefore, in practice, one has to limit oneself to simplified approaches, assessing the risk by one or more indicators representing generalized characteristics that are most important for judging risk acceptability. The area in which losses are not expected is the risk-free zone, it corresponds to zero losses or negative (exceeding profits). Under the zone of acceptable risk, we mean the area within which this type of entrepreneurial activity retains its economic feasibility, i.e. losses occur, but they are less than the expected profit. The boundary of the zone of acceptable risk corresponds to the level of losses equal to the estimated profit from entrepreneurial activity. The next more dangerous area will be called the critical risk zone. This is an area characterized by the possibility of losses in excess of the expected profit, up to the value of the total estimated revenue from the business, representing the sum of costs and profits. In other words, the critical risk zone is characterized by the danger of losses that obviously exceed the expected profit and, at the maximum, can lead to an irrecoverable loss of all funds invested by the entrepreneur in the business. In the latter case, the entrepreneur not only does not receive any income from the transaction, but incurs losses in the amount of all fruitless expenses. In addition to the critical, it is advisable to consider an even more frightening catastrophic risk. The zone of catastrophic risk represents the area of losses, which in their magnitude exceed the critical level and at the maximum can reach a value equal to the property status of the entrepreneur. A catastrophic risk can lead to the collapse, bankruptcy of the enterprise, its closure and the sale of property. The catastrophic category should include, regardless of property or monetary damage, the risk associated with a direct danger to human life or the occurrence of environmental disasters. The most complete picture of the risk is given by the so-called loss probability distribution curve or a graphic representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their level, showing how likely the occurrence of certain losses is. To establish the type of a typical loss probability curve, consider profit as a random variable and first construct a probability distribution curve for obtaining a certain level of profit. The following assumptions were made when constructing the profit probability distribution curve. It is most likely to receive a profit equal to the calculated value - PRr. The probability (Вр) of obtaining such a profit is maximum; accordingly, the value of PRr can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit. The probability of making a profit greater or less than the calculated one is the lower, the more such profit differs from the calculated one, i.e., the probabilities of deviation from the calculated profit monotonically decrease with the growth of deviations, which is clearly seen in Fig. 2.3. Profit losses ( PR) is considered to be its decrease in comparison with the calculated value of PRr. If real profit is equal to PR, then PR=PRr-PR. Rice. 2.3. Typical probability curve for a certain level of profit The probability of exceptionally large (theoretically infinite) losses is practically zero, since losses obviously have an upper limit (excluding losses that cannot be quantified). Of course, the assumptions made are to some extent debatable, as they may indeed not hold for all types of risk.
Bibliography
Analysis of business risks of an enterprise
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Risk assessment in the enterprise is carried out by a risk assessment manager. It develops, recommends and manages risk management programs and loss prevention activities to ensure maximum protection corporate property and capital. Investigates and reports on accidents, incidents related to the company's products, and then coordinates the actions of insurance companies and lawyers. Views and analyzes data and develops programs to minimize risks. Monitors compliance with safety regulations, ensures that the company's products comply with industry standards and market requirements.
There are several approaches to risk assessment in an enterprise. Let's consider some of them.
The main task of the first of the risk assessment methods under consideration is their systematization and development of an integrated approach to determining the degree of risk affecting the financial and economic activities of an enterprise. The following risk assessment algorithm is proposed, which is shown in Fig. 1.1.
All risk researchers do not pay enough attention to assessing the quality of the information with which they assess risk.
Rice. 1.1.
The requirements for the quality of information should be as follows:
- - reliability (correctness) of information - a measure of the proximity of information to the original source or the accuracy of information transfer;
- - objectivity of information - a measure of reflection of reality by information;
- - uniqueness;
- - the order of information - the number of transmission links between the primary source and the end user;
- - completeness of information - a reflection of the exhaustive nature of the compliance of the information received with the purposes of collection;
- - relevance - the degree of approximation of information to the essence of the issue or the degree of correspondence of information to the task;
- - relevance of information (significance) - importance of information for risk assessment;
- - cost of information.
It is proposed to establish the relationship between the risk and the quality of the information on which it (risk) is assessed. It is suggested that the probability of the risk of making a poor-quality (unprofitable) decision depends on the quality and volume of the information used. This assumption is taken from neoclassical risk theory. According to this theory, if there are several options for making a decision (with equal profitability), a decision is chosen in which the probability of risk (fluctuation) is the smallest. It can be assumed that also in the presence of several options with the same profit, a decision is chosen that is based on better information, that is, there is a relationship between risk and information.
On fig. 1.2. the expected dependence of the risk probability of making a poor-quality (unprofitable) decision and the volume/quality of information is shown.
A high probability of risk occurrence corresponds to a minimum of qualitative information.
Figure 1.2. Dependence of risk and information
To assess the quality of information, it is proposed to use Table 1.3.
Table 1.3
Evaluation of information used
This table allows you to analyze any information and visually verify its quality. Numbers 1-10 at the top of the table indicate the quality of the information: the better the information is, the higher the number is assigned to it. The result of the analysis can be the final value of the quality of information, which is found as an arithmetic mean.
Fixing risks. When evaluating financial and economic activities, it is proposed to fix risks, that is, to limit the number of existing risks using the principle of "reasonable sufficiency". This principle is based on taking into account the most significant and most common risks for assessing the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. It is recommended to use the following types of risks: regional, natural, political, legislative, transport, property, organizational, personal, marketing, production, settlement, investment, currency, credit, financial.
Drawing up an algorithm for the decision to be made. This stage in assessing the risks of financial and economic activity is intended for the phased division of the planned solution into a certain number of smaller and simpler solutions. This action is called drawing up a solution algorithm.
Qualitative risk assessment. Qualitative risk assessment involves: identifying the risks inherent in the implementation of the proposed solution; determination of the quantitative structure of risks; identification of the most risky areas in the developed decision algorithm.
To implement this procedure, it is proposed to use a table of qualitative analysis. In this table, the rows show the algorithm of actions when making a decision, and the columns show previously fixed risks. So, when deciding to place new base stations at one of the communications enterprises, the risk assessment may look like this (see Table 1.4).
Table 1.4
Qualitative risk assessment
Decision algorithm |
Type of risk |
||||||||||||||||||||||||
regional |
natural |
transport |
political |
legislative |
organizational |
personal |
property |
estimated |
marketing |
industrial |
currency |
credit |
financial |
investment |
|||||||||||
Identification of the need to place new equipment in the area |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
Attracting working capital |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
Organization of the transaction, purchase |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
necessary equipment |
Quantitative risk assessment is carried out on the basis of data obtained during their qualitative assessment, that is, only those risks that are present during the implementation of a specific operation of the decision-making algorithm will be evaluated. For each recorded risk, a risk assessment table is compiled based on data obtained from statistical, scientific, periodic sources, as well as on the basis of personal experience leaders. The data in the risk assessment table are compiled in such a way as to most fully identify the constituent risk factors. When using this approach, a high efficiency of a qualitative assessment of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise is achieved. In the compiled tables, the values that most closely correspond to the questions posed are selected. In some cases, it is proposed to independently determine the risk value on a ten-point scale. After selecting the risk value at its level exceeding 0.8, an arbitrary mark (+) is made in the corresponding column. The final stage of filling in the columns of the table is to put down the value of the quality of the information on the basis of which the decision was made. At the end of the table, the final quantitative assessment is summarized as the arithmetic mean of all indicators of risk components. Decision-making. Making a decision is the final and most responsible procedure in assessing the risks of financial and economic activities. When developing a behavior strategy and in "the process of making a specific decision, it is advisable to distinguish and highlight certain areas (risk zones) depending on the level of possible (expected) losses in financial and economic activities." So, based on the generalization of the results of research by many authors on the problem of quantitative risk assessment of the financial and economic activities of enterprises, an empirical risk scale has been developed and proposed, which can be used in its quantitative assessment (Table 1.5). Table 1.5 Empirical Risk Scale
Decision making consists of three steps:
As mentioned earlier, when making a decision under conditions of uncertainty, special attention should be paid to the quality of information. In this regard, it is proposed to use the risk-information decision-making table (Fig. 1.3). Rice. 1.3. For a qualitative risk assessment, the Delphi method can also be used. This method is a collective peer review. It was developed by Olaf Helmer, a well-known expert from the DAND research corporation, a mathematician by education. Therefore, this method combines a creative approach to solving the problem and sufficient forecast accuracy. The essence is to conduct questionnaire surveys among specialists in the chosen field of knowledge. The obtained personal data are subjected to statistical processing, as a result of which a range of expert opinions is formed, reflecting their collective opinion on the chosen problem. Usually after the first survey there is a significant spread of opinions. Therefore, the procedure for implementing the Delphi method involves conducting three or four more surveys, on the eve of which each of the experts is acquainted with the results of the previous survey, but not in order to put pressure on him, but so that the experiment can get Additional information about the subject of the survey. Ideally, the survey is repeated until the opinions of experts coincide, in reality - until the narrowest range of opinions is obtained. |